TODAY’S OPEN THREAD

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4 Responses to TODAY’S OPEN THREAD

  1. Leonard Jones says:

    It is now 205 D to 200 R in the RCP House page. There are still 28 red districts
    in the tossup column so a GOP hold is looking good. All it takes is 18 to keep
    the house.

    I have never thought much about the generic ballot because they always skew
    Democrat.

    It is looking like 53 seat majority for the GOP in the Senate in spite of the fact that
    3 more races have not been updated in weeks. I still believe that Tester in MT
    and McCaskill in MO are vulnerable. There are even some longshots like
    Menendez in NJ and Manchin WV who are in razor-close races.

    I would not count on seeing many more polls published between now and election
    day so any predictions I make in the end will rely as much on intuition as actual data.

  2. antzinpantz says:

    So maybe now is the time to ask: is that your final answer? Is that your prediction? No fair waiting until November 5th.

    Right now what say you? And everyone else for that matter?

    I say they hold the senate with 51. They lose the House by 5.

  3. redneckgeezer says:

    I have no friggin’ clue. I don’t think they will lose the senate, but that’s about it. The thought of Nazi Palsy being speaker is enough to make me want to vomit. That and Adam Shiftless being chairman of anything.

  4. Leonard Jones says:

    I called 53 as a minimum. The current split is 44 D to 50 R. Heller is ahead of Rosen
    by 7 points in Nevada. Hawley is ahead of McCaskill by 4 in Missouri. And Braun is
    ahead of Donnely by 3 points. That is my baseline. Every time Sinema opens her
    mouth, she shoots herself in the foot, so I have a good feeling about the Arizona
    Senate race. Anything above Missouri, Nevada, and Indiana will be icing on the cake.

    If the Democrats swept all 6 tossup seats, the result would a split Senate. The GOP
    only needs 1, and Nevada is all but lost for the Donks. This election is the murkiest
    I have ever seen. Starting with the assumption that most professional pollsters skew
    Democrat or wildly oversample Democrat, even the tie in Florida looks promising.
    As I stated in my earlier post today, new polling data just isn’t there.

    I absolutely agree with your prediction of the hose races. Five seats would put the
    total at 223. 220 to 225 would be my best guestimate based on Gerrymandering.
    I will call that my final prediction for the House. By November 3, I will call the
    Senate and the governor’s races. I will also E-mail you the interactive maps on
    the third. I called all but one of the Rust Belt, steel, and coal states in 2020 and
    only missed one, but Trump won by the exact electoral votes I predicted. Not one
    of those states polling numbers predicted a Trump win. Waiting till the 3rd would
    not give me an unfair advantage as the changes are not coming fast enough to make
    a difference.

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